How to make better decisions

In their book "Decisive," Chip and Dan Heath delve into the intricacies of decision-making, blending science and art, and even revisiting and refining some of the recommendations put forth in "Thinking, Fast and Slow." The central theme is to establish a systematic decision-making process that mitigates the risk of succumbing to the four decision-making pitfalls: narrow framing, confirmation bias, short-term emotions, and overconfidence.

1. Expand Your Options

This tactic counters the narrow framing pitfall. When you find yourself contemplating a binary choice, it's a signal to diversify your options. Instead of simply asking, "Should I go to the party?" consider alternatives like "Should I attend the party, have dinner with friends, or go out to the movies?"

2. Challenge Your Assumptions

Confirmation bias tends to make us dismiss conflicting information while giving undue weight to confirming data. To combat this bias, ask probing questions: What risks are involved? What could go awry? What assumptions underlie this decision? Test these assumptions through small experiments.

3. Gain Perspective Before Deciding

Achieving distance, both physically and temporally, is effective in reducing the sway of short-term emotions. One example is to instead of going to car dealers and directly get convinced into buying a car, call them, let multiple dealers make offers, keep actual physical distance. Adding a safety time margin before making the decision is another option.

4. Prepare for the Possibility of Being Wrong

To counteract overconfidence, it's essential to mentally prepare for the potential of being mistaken. A valuable exercise is a premortem: "Imagine it's a year from now, and our plan has failed. Why did it fail?" Conversely, in a preparade, envision success a year from now and strategize for it. Identify factors that would necessitate reconsideration and set up early warning mechanisms.